Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded Ardelyx (NASDAQ:ARDX) to “overweight” from “neutral” and doubled its price target to $10 from $5, citing an upcoming PDUFA date of Oct. 17 for flagship drug, Xphozah, and higher sales estimates for Xphozah. The stock closed at $3.51 on Aug. 24.
“We think the Street is underappreciating the peak sales potential of Xphozah,” writes analyst Louise Chen.
Ms. Chen’s higher conviction is based on the potential for Ardelyx’s IBSRELA to continue to exceed Street expectations; a greater appreciation for the total addressable market for Xphozah to treat hyperphosphatemia; and there may be a path towards resolution/adoption of the PATIENT act as early as end of year, delaying the inclusion of phosphate-lowering drugs into the Medicare dialysis bundle from 2025 to 2033.
“We have increased our assumed probability of success for the U.S. approval and launch of Xphozah to treat hyperphosphatemia to 80% from 10% in our financial model,” she added.