SVB Leerink raised its price target for Provention Bio (NASDAQ:PRVB) to $17 from $5.50, following positive At-Risk trial results presented at the American Diabetes Association meeting last week. The stock closed at $11.36 on June 17.
Results from the study showed that a single 14-day course of Provention’s teplizumab significantly delayed the onset and diagnosis of clinical Type 1 diabetes, compared with a placebo, by a median of two years in children and adults considered to be at high risk.
The median time to clinical diagnosis of Type 1 diabetes was just over 48 months, compared with just over 24 months for placebo participants. During the trial, 72% of subjects in the placebo group developed clinical diabetes, compared with only 43% of the teplizumab group.
“Our U.S.-based valuation model was updated with three key parameters including, a more robust pricing estimate for teplizumab based on analogs; a better defined eligible population; and segmentation of at-risk and new onset populations,” writes analyst Dr. Pasha Sarraf.
“We broadened the model to include patients at risk of developing Type 1 diabetes, with a projected commercial launch in the second half of 2021 for teplizumab in this indication,” he said, adding that teplizumab could receive a label expansion in 2023 in new onset Type 1 diabetes.
Dr. Sarraf also noted that his model for teplizumab does not include territories outside of the U.S., even though the addition of Europe alone would likely double the eligible patient population.
