Stifel initiated coverage of Immunic (NASDAQ: IMUX) with a “buy” rating and price target of $2.50. The stock closed at $1.11 on April 15.
Immunic is a biotechnology company developing vidofludimus calcium (VidoCa) for relapsing and progressive multiple sclerosis (MS). VidoCa is a next gen DHODH inhibitor (i.e., Aubagio) that also has a secondary mechanism-of-action in Nurr1. The primary thesis around VidoCa is to replicate the efficacy of Aubagio, but without the safety baggage that includes hepatotoxicity, alopecia, embryofetal tox, and neutropenia.
“We think the data and argument are very strong that VidoCa can differentiate on multiple of these points, and if it does, KOLs expect the drug to be an appealing option, especially for older patients where safety risk is a primary consideration,” writes Stifel Senior Biotech analyst Paul Matteis. “And while the bear case here is that the MS market is crowded, we would argue that this has been the case for ~15 years–and yet, Aubagio, even with its flawed profile, was still a >$2B drug in 2020 competing against Tecfidera, Gilenya, Tysabri and the very safe ABCR class. And while we model VidoCa revenues off a target product profile of “Aubagio-like” efficacy but with improved safety, we believe there is a potential upside angle here if the neuroprotection thesis plays out, either via (1) differentiated data on EDSS/disability protection/CDW in the RMS ph3s or (2) success in Progressive MS, where a ph3 is starting later this year.
