Waiting on Medicago trial results

In a New Idea of Interest report on Medicago (TSX-V:MDG), Dundee Securities said that if Phase 1 results for its lead H5N1 avian vaccine are positive in December, the company could “establish a leading position in the global effort to find a superior vaccine-production technology.”

Analyst David Martin rates the stock “buy (speculative risk)” but without a target price.

However, he said that if Phase 1 results are competitive, the stock would increase to the $1.15 range, giving the company a market capitalization of $104-million.  “Clearly class-leading results … could push MDG to $2” or higher, he added. The shares are changing hands at 64 cents Wednesday morning.

In addition to Medicago’s U.S. development and commercialization strategy, he said the Quebec City-based company has signed agreements to build vaccine facilities in France, India and Saudi Arabia, if Phase I results are positive in December.

“This speaks to the importance of Phase I results in the development of flu vaccines, and to why we believe that strong results in December would provide good visibility for success in later-stage clinical trials,” Mr. Martin added.